|2/16/2016 by mdc|
|The UXC introduction to their study indicates that given the move toward cleaner energy, reduced carbon emissions, and more secure long-term energy sources, uranium supply is becoming more important to utilities worldwide. In the 2013 publication, their post-Fukushima demand forecast was more positive, as they projected it to double by 2030. In the current forecast, base case demand is projected to increase by 53% through 2030, which is a significant reduction from two years ago. The majority of the increased demand is still expected to come from Southeast Asia, China and India in particular.|
Although the end of the U.S.-Russia HEU Agreement in 2013 was certainly a positive event for producers seeking to bring online new production, the reduction in demand stemming from the Fukushima incident has essentially negated the loss of 24 million pounds U3O8 per year resulting from the end of the HEU deal.
Secondary supply sources also continue to be a huge factor impacting uranium prices and the viability of new and existing uranium projects. Enricher underfeeding has become a very important part of secondary supply in the post-Fukushima environment. Even though underfeeding is less profitable given the current low price of uranium, spare enrichment capacity resulting from lower than expected demand is being utilized by enrichers to yield uranium totaling up to 15 million pounds U3O8e per year. Furthermore, U.S. Government inventories and the use of MOX/Reprocessing meet a comparable amount of demand in the near term. Add to this inventory build-up from shuttered reactors in the wake of the Fukushima disaster, and secondary supplies amount to upward of 40 million pounds U3O8 per year for the next few years.
This study complements UxC Uranium Supplier Annual in identifying where expanded and new uranium supply will come from among 117 worldwide projects to meet future demand through 2030. Cost curves for operational, planned, and potential projects are provided.