Argus reported in mid-2024 that the month ahead the upwards momentum for magnet and heavy rare earths spot prices halted in mid-May, and prices dropped steadily for the remainder of the month and into June. Prices for other rare earths remained stable. The outlook for the month ahead is for a weakening in monthly price averages for medium to heavy rare earths.
The next 3-6 months
Prices for the key rare earths are now well below the average breakeven price for the industry, squeezing margins and profitability. Demand remains sluggish but prices are forecast to improve as the year progresses.
12 months forward
In the longer term, electric vehicle (EV) sales and offshore wind power capacity additions are likely to strengthen prices for rare earth magnet materials into 2025, with supply of heavy rare earths more constrained than for light rare earths.
China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) sales accounted for 32pc in 2023 and 36pc in April. Sales rose by 34pc to 850,300 in April, and 32pc to 2.94mn in January-April,
Energy Fuels is acquiring Australia-based mineral sands developer Base Resources to gain access to the monazite stream from its Toliara project in Africa, and
China’s total exports of rare earths in January-April rose by 10pc from a year earlier to 18,049t.
The price downtrend for most light, medium and heavy rare earths continued from mid-May into early June, as more suppliers destocked material and reduced offers further. More market participants expect the downtrend to continue in the near term, with ample spot supply of rare earths and magnet
manufacturing plants waiting for even lower prices.
Argus assessed domestic prices for 99% NdPr oxide at 369-372 yuan/kg ($50.94-51.35/kg) ex-works on 4 June, down by Yn4/kg against 30 May in response to profit-taking activity from trading firms and falling metal transaction prices. Oxide separation producers and trading houses lowered offers to
generate sales during the period. An oxide separation plant sold 5t of NdPr oxide at Yn370/kg ex-works on 4 June.
Export prices moved down to $51.20-51.70/kg fob on 4 June from $51.80-52.30/kg fob on 30 May, in line with the fall in domestic prices. The price for 99pc NdPr metal was also assessed lower at Yn455-458/kg ex-works on 4 June, down from the 30 May assessment of Yn462-465/kg. A magnet producer purchased 60t of the metal at Yn455/kg paid by cash and Yn458-459/kg paid by acceptance bill.
Most metal producers expect metal prices to extend the downward trend in the near term owing to sporadic purchases from magnet producers. Export prices fell to $63.20- 63.70/kg fob from $64-64.50/kg fob during the same period.
Weak demand from metal producers continued to weigh on the neodymium oxide market. Prices for 99.5-99.9pc neodymium oxide fell by Yn5/kg from 30 May to Yn375-380/kgex-works on 4 June. Export prices slid to $52-53/kg fob from $52.70-53.70/kg fob during the same period.
Tepid demand from magnet manufacturing plants and the fall in oxide feedstock prices exerted pressure on the neodymium metal market. Prices for 99pc neodymium metal fell to Yn463-468/kg ex-works on 4 June from Yn470-475/kg on 30 May.
Export prices decreased to $64-65/kg fob from $65- 66/kg fob over the same period.
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