Shannak and two co-authors reported in early 2025 that after reviewing the global uranium market and assessing whether future supply can meet growing demand through 2050, focusing on market and geopolitical drivers. A dual approach was used, combining econometric analysis and uranium supply curve modeling.
Schematic of the methodology for the two approaches followed in this study,
combining the Supply Curve Approach and the Econometric Model to estimate
future uranium supply. Source: Authors
The econometric analysis examines the long-term relationship between prices and production volumes, using multiple methods to ensure robustness. Supply curve modeling shows how uranium availabilitychanges with price, which helps gauge market resilience under various conditions. The main finding is a significant gap between projecteduranium supply and demand, particularly in medium and high-demand scenarios, with a potential shortage emerging as early as 2035. By 2050,Kazakhstan and Canada are expected to dominate the uranium export market.
Political and energy security concerns may lead to new global alliances and trade routes to meet the growing demand for nuclear energy. The study also highlights the International Atomic Energy Agency’s outlook, emphasizing that primary mining will remain the dominant source of uranium, despite contributions from secondary sources.
For policymakers, the study stresses the need for strategic interventions, including re-evaluating production and export policies in uranium-rich nations and developing effective strategies to secure supply. Findings offer key insights into market dynamics and ensure nuclear energy’s sustainability.
The authors concluded that in analysing current and projected nuclear power capacity across the globe we show that a dynamic uranium market, with potential expansion in certain countries indicating strong future demand. Looking at China, India, and the UK, they have robust plans to increase their nuclear power capacities; on the other hand, the United States and France show mature markets with steady demand. Additionally, the international landscape indicates a complex interplay of energy policy, environmental commitments, and market forces that will shape the uranium market for years to come.
Future work should examine these developments, taking into account the potential impacts of factors such as new technologies, policy shifts, and environmental constraints. Such studies could build upon this study by expanding the scenarios of geopolitical pathways, and conducting foresight analyses regarding potential supply chain impacts.
The findings of this study show a significant gap between projected uranium demand and supply, with the most noticeable divergence in the Medium and High scenarios. These differences indicate that it is vital to have strategic interventions to safeguard against any potential shortfall in uranium supply as early as 2035. The projected supply is primarily established based on mining production, underlining the IAEA’s projection that mining will be the main source of uranium in the coming years, although secondary sources could contribute to the total supply.
Kazakhstan, Canada, and Russia are the major players shaping the geopolitical landscape of uranium production and demand up to 2050. Western countries are working on reducing their reliance on Russian uranium, which contributes to reshaping global trade dynamics. By 2050, the strategic decisions of uranium-rich nations in response to political and energy security considerations will affect the creation of new global alliances and trade patterns. The main focus is on how current and new alliances manage their geopolitical relationships and utilise uranium to meet the growing demand for nuclear energy.
The uranium market’s response to price changes needs to be studied in depth to explore the long-term sustainability of resources, considering secondary uranium sources.
Therefore, this would open up research that is multidisciplinary and includes researchers in economic modelling, policy analysis, and techno-economic analysis within the nuclear sector. The findings of this study identify a future where challenges and opportunities lie ahead for the uranium supply chain. It is important that actors from different sectors across countries collaborate to ensure that opportunities in this field can be harnessed.
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